In the current context of climate emergency, foresight has become an essential tool for assessing the different possible trajectories of the energy mix and the new opportunities to deploy disruptive energy technologies.
Uncertainties about future energy mixes are partly the result of implemented energy and environmental policies and partly due to technologies that are either immature or likely to further evolve through the implementation of disruptive innovations.
Moreover, their roll-out may be a source of environmental impacts just as critical as those associated with CO2 emissions, draining critical resources or adversely affecting water resources, for example.
The use of new energy technologies may itself evolve significantly depending on their acceptance by consumers/citizens and potential changes in their behaviour.
Beyond the uncertainties affecting each of these aspects, another major issue is the incorporation of future ground-breaking innovations in the development of various options. This may lead to questions concerning the robustness of the mathematical models used to forecast future energy mixes.
Addressing all of these issues justifies the development and integration of complementary methodologies and approaches, stemming from a variety of scientific fields and relating to both “hard” and humanities & social sciences (economic modelling, life cycle analysis, behavioural approaches, experimental economics), thereby guaranteeing the development of relevant prospective analyses.
This workshop will be organized around the presentation and discussion of state-of-the-art technologies to tackle different modelling approaches and the challenges related to the integration of these methods into models for different sectorial applications (mobility, gas and electricity, etc.).
IFPEN Institutional Relations and Communications Division